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His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.

The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.

But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.

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Prosecutors allege that five suspects had operated internet-based gambling services without the required German licences from at least July 2021. The volume of bets placed on these platforms reportedly exceeded €5.8 billion between mid-2021 and the end of 2023. 

In addition to illegal gambling, investigators suspect extensive tax evasion, with a projected tax shortfall of about €77.6 million for 2024.

The DSWV, representing licensed sports-betting operators, broadly welcomed the law enforcement action as a necessary response to the illegal market’s growth and associated risks. 

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The Netherlands has a government that may be a little heavy handed, a regulator that knows this, and a monopolistic operator that’s trying to do its best for the customer. The industry is an active participant in trying to erradicate the growing illegal market. This week, state-lottery operator Nederlandse Loterij took action against the offshore operator behind the brand Skyhills, ordering them to cease serving Dutch players.

What else can Netherlands gambling operators do to stop the flow of players offshore? Holland Casino is a member of online gambling trade association VNLOK which represents 90% of the licensed operators, and Petra answers simply: “If we knew the answer, we would try to reach it.

“What I do think is that deciding together, not only as operators, but together with politicians and stakeholders, that a legal market is very important to get that done. We’re not there yet, and that’s what we’re saying.