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A federal judge sentenced Santos to 87 months in prison last April on felony wire fraud and check fraud charges. After Santos served several months in 2025, US President Donald Trump granted the former congressman clemency, resulting in his immediate release.
Shortly after his release, Santos had begun working as an influencer for Polymarket.
Santos’ case represents the most severe among four disciplinary settlements announced by Kalshi, which has faced increasing scrutiny concerning insider knowledge risks and event outcome influence by market participants.
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The case, which dates back to November 2021, was filed by Evolution against Black Cube, after the intelligence firm was found to have been secretly investigating Evolution’s activities from December 2020.
Playtech commissioned Black Cube’s investigation, which Evolution has described as a “smear campaign” involving secretly recorded interviews with staff members.
The dossier accused Evolution of supplying games into banned and sanctioned markets, including territories under US sanctions such as Iran and Syria.
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Moving forward, history suggests that this month’s rate hike might not be the last. During hawkish periods, the FOMC has paused after an initial rate hike just once since the 1990s, per the Wall Street Journal. Over that period, the US Central Bank has typically lifted rates six to seven times throughout an upward cycle. Warsh has signalled optimism in the economy’s stability moving forward.
“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace,” he told reporters on Wednesday. “While uncertainty remains elevated, owing in part to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient, productivity growth is strong and capital investment is robust.”
Following the decision, the odds of one additional rate hike this year jumped to 48% on Wednesday afternoon on Polymarket. The contract asks traders to predict whether the upper bound of the Fed Funds Rate will hit 4.25% by the end of 2026. There is now a 21% chance that the Fed will stand pat for the remainder of year, with a slightly lower probability that the upper bound will reach at least 4.5%.
