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The problem is that legalisation has not happened as quickly as expected, while taxes and competition have increased. “Online gaming has been affected by the broader re-rating of growth-oriented internet and software stocks,” says Chad Beynon, managing director and head of US research at Macquarie Capital. “But there has also been a genuine deterioration in expectations for parts of the sector.”
Beynon says sports betting companies have suffered particularly badly because the market is questioning both future earnings and the size of the eventual opportunity. More iGaming-focused companies such as Rush Street Interactive and Super Group have generally performed better operationally, helped by stronger earnings growth and profitability.
The lesson is simple: gambling still attracts capital when the money is visible. It is less attractive when the payoff lies far in the distance.
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On Thursday, the UK Gambling Commission reported that two senior figures formerly associated with the Conservative Party had pleaded guilty to offences linked to betting on the 2024 General Election date.
Anthony Lee, who served as the Conservative Party’s director of campaigning, pleaded guilty to two counts of cheating under sections 42(1)(a) and 42(1)(b) of the Gambling Act 2005.
Meanwhile, Laura Lee (formerly Saunders), his wife and former head of international for the party, who also stood as the Conservative candidate in Bristol North-West at the 2024 election, pleaded guilty to one offence under section 42(1)(a).
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“Publicly traded valuations are a reflection of the current interest rate environment,” Chad Beynon, lead gaming analyst for Macquarie, told iGB. “Whether it’s a long-term financial model on a growth company, you’re going to discount that back at a higher rate, or if it’s just a standard four-wall business, the cash flows in a higher interest rate environment are worth less.”
According to data from Yahoo Finance, the resort and casino sector is -41% over the last five years, and the overall gambling sector, which includes major sportsbooks and online operators, is +7%; the benchmark S&P 500 index, by comparison, is +71% during that span.
Two blockbuster developments in the casino space earlier this year seemed to indicate an increasingly bullish bet on the sector, including Fertitta Entertainment’s acquisition of Caesars Entertainment in May. The other is a subsequent takeover offer of MGM Resorts from its largest shareholder, Barry Diller’s People Inc. But a negative shift in market conditions could affect both deals.
